Thinking Aloud
Different cultures have similar sayings describing an alcoholic’s “logic”. For example, a Japanese saying has it “An alcoholic will drink because the sun sets. He will also drink for the sun rises." An example of paralogism I found in the book Twerski, Abraham J. (1997): Addictive thinking. Understanding the addictive process and compulsive behavior.
Interesting figures are provided in numerous sources they are different in details, but can be summed up in the following picture. Evidently, almost everybody tries alcohol, but only about 20% come to the addiction stage. Complete abstinence after the stage of alcohol addiction that is viewed by DSM-5 as serious is available to about 3-4 %. This percentage is lower than the level taken as statistical uncertainty. Moreover, one can be sure to say this percentage is equal among those who underwent different programs and those who managed the addiction themselves. The data is tragic, but not hopeless. Among the 200 million alcoholics worldwide 3-4 % people means millions of those who got free from alcohol, millions examples that there’s a chance.

